2022 house of representatives election prediction

The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Send us an email. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. RCP House Map Race Changes. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. . This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Find out how all this works in our. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Our forecast has three versions. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. We rated every race in play in 2022. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. that guide every prediction he makes. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. The figures shown are total numbers. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The party gained a net of nine districts. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. See the rest of our predictions. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. Arizona. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. All 435 districts were up for election. You deserve to hear our thinking. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. You can also view these ratings as a table. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Click here! Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. All rights reserved. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot,. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. File. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. Analysis>. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating less Likely mention... Lean as of June 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight majority 255 REP seats 225... 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